2024-03-03T09:18:56Z
https://fukuyama-u.repo.nii.ac.jp/oai
oai:fukuyama-u.repo.nii.ac.jp:00007864
2023-06-19T10:35:13Z
502:505:675:690
上水道供給支障率予測モデルの検討 : 重要度評価とファジィ数量化理論の応用
Forecasting Model for Damage Restoration of Water Supply Network : Estimation of Importance and Application of Fuzzy Quantification Theory
千葉, 利晃
請川, 健一
岡野, 誠吾
上水道管網
供給支障率
シミュレーション
ファジィ数量化理論
water supply network
supply interruption rate
simulation
Fuzzy quantification theory
P(論文)
There have been several simulation models for the evaluation of lifeline supply functions. These models so far developed are very complicated. And they require a long computational time due to a network inter-linkage analysis and so on. Recently, to improve the complexity, Hoshiya and others proposed a simple forecasting model for the seismic damage restoration of city water supply functions. In this model, the supply interruption rate is estimated by the linear multiple regression model. Therefore, it is easy to estimate its rate for any damage patterns at every moment. In the above model, however, there are some unstable conditions in the calculation of multiple regression analysis. Since the intensity of importance of nodes and links is used as an explanatory variable, it is necessary to get a proper estimation of its intensity. However, it is difficult to express its intensity quantitatively. Therefore, this study aims to consider these subjects of instability and to consider how to evaluate the intensity of importance. There are vague variables such as the intensity of importance mentioned above. Therefore, the another object of this study is to discuss the applicability of Fuzzy quantification theories to the forecasting model of supply interruption rate.
1993
jpn
departmental bulletin paper
https://fukuyama-u.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/7864
AN00217655
福山大学工学部紀要
15
77
90
https://fukuyama-u.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/7864/files/KJ00005781250.pdf
application/pdf
1.1 MB
1993-01-01